Best Time to Buy and Sell Aircraft

Intro

When it comes to purchasing an aircraft, there’s rarely a "perfect" time, but certain times of the year are better than others. Historically, the winter months tend to be a slower period for aircraft sales. This seasonal lull can work in favor of buyers, as sellers may become more flexible with their pricing in an effort to move their aircraft in a timely manner. Between October and March, you’re likely to find that sellers are more willing to negotiate, which could result in better deals.

However, when spring arrives, the aviation market wakes up along with everything else. As the weather warms up and people are eager to get out of the house, the market becomes much more active. More aircraft become available, and the demand increases, often leading to more competitive bidding and multiple offers being thrown at sellers. If you're a buyer, this means you'll face more competition for the aircraft you want. Sellers, on the other hand, will find it easier to move their aircraft from April through September, as demand is generally higher. 

The cyclical nature of the aircraft market means that buyers typically have the upper hand in the winter, while sellers benefit from the busy spring and summer months. Understanding these seasonal ebbs and flows can help you plan your purchase or sale more strategically. That said, timing your purchase based on these seasonal shifts is just one piece of the puzzle. The broader economic climate and long-term trends in the aviation market also play a significant role in aircraft pricing.

The Broader Market: Expecting a Crash?

It’s not uncommon for buyers to wait for a market crash, hoping to snag a great deal on an aircraft. But in the post-COVID world, expecting a significant drop in aircraft prices may leave you waiting indefinitely. While the market may experience minor dips, particularly in line with general economic downturns, a massive crash is unlikely in the near future. 

The COVID-19 pandemic caused an explosion in aircraft prices due to increased demand, limited supply, and record setting inflation, those prices are not expected to drop significantly. Several factors contribute to this. Inflation is driving up the cost of everything, including aircraft production, and supply chain issues are still affecting the availability of new aircraft. Until these systemic issues are addressed on a governmental and global level, we won’t see a drastic decrease in aircraft prices.

The Shrinking General Aviation Fleet

Another important factor to consider is the state of the general aviation fleet. Light aircraft, especially those from the golden age of general aviation in the 1960s and 1970s, are getting older. Many have been scrapped or deteriorated to the point of no return. As a result, we’re left recycling the same fleet of aging aircraft. This lack of new inventory means that the remaining aircraft are holding their value—and often appreciating.

Most buyers simply can’t afford the price tag on a brand-new Cessna 182, which can run upwards of $800,000. Instead, the market is dominated by used aircraft, many of which are 50+ years old and in need of significant maintenance or upgrades. If you’re waiting for the price of these planes to drop to pre-COVID levels, or if you’re hoping to find a pristine Cessna 182 for $65,000, you’re likely in for a rude awakening. The current market simply doesn’t support those kinds of deals and we believe those days are long behind us.

The Reality of Aircraft Ownership

If you’ve been waiting for the perfect deal to come along, it’s important to understand the broader market dynamics at play. Inflation, supply chain issues, the aging fleet, and global economic factors all contribute to the sustained high prices of aircraft. If you can afford to make the leap now, it may be worth doing so rather than waiting for a crash that may never come. Aircraft ownership is costly, and maintaining your plane over the years will inevitably incur high bills. But if the current prices are scaring you off, you may want to reconsider whether aircraft ownership is right for you in the first place.

For those who are unsure about the financial commitment, joining an aircraft club or entering into a partnership might be a better option. These alternatives allow you to enjoy flying without shouldering the full burden of ownership, making them a practical choice for many.

Conclusion: Don’t Wait for Perfection

While there are better times to buy during the year—fall and winter tend to be ideal—waiting for a perfect market crash or a once-in-a-lifetime deal isn’t the best strategy. The aircraft market, like most, is unpredictable, and the factors driving prices up are unlikely to change in the near future. Instead of waiting for a bargain that may never come, consider taking the plunge now if you can afford it. Enjoy the freedom and adventure that comes with owning an aircraft, because at the end of the day, that’s what it’s all about. 

If you’re financially prepared and passionate about aviation, don’t let timing hold you back. Dive in, make the purchase, and enjoy the skies. After all, aircraft ownership is about more than just dollars and cents—it’s about the thrill of flying and the unique lifestyle that comes with it.